What does Croct mean by "recommended winner", what confidence level is that?

Coming from a tool that reported everything as frequentist p-values, so the "recommended winner" label is new to me and I want to map it to something I already understand.

What is the actual statistical bar Croct applies before it calls a variant the winner? Is there a confidence level I can point to, or is the whole model different from what I am used to? Thanks in advance.